SBY’s Democratic Party can win poll: Survey

Abdul Khalik , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Mon, 11/17/2008 6:53 AM | Headlines

OF SWING VOTERS: University of Indonesia communications expert Effendi Ghazali (second right) speaks during the release of a survey by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) on the position of swing voters ahead of the 2009 elections, in Jakarta on Sunday. Other speakers included Paramadina University rector Anies Baswedan (right), LSI executive director Saiful Mujani (left) and LSI researcher Miftah N. Sabri. (JP/P.J. Leo)

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party would win the legislative election if it was held today, a survey published Sunday said.

The survey, carried out by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) on 2,197 respondents in 33 provinces between Oct. 26 and Nov. 5, showed the Democratic Party was popular with 16.8 percent of respondents. The vastly bigger Golkar Party and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) received only 16 percent and 14 percent approval respectively.

LSI executive director Saiful Mudjani said the surge in the Democratic Party’s popularity was due mostly to the party’s image as a graft-free and capable one, with Yudho-yono symbolizing its anti-corruption drive and leadership capabilities.

The survey revealed that Yudhoyono’s resurgent popularity (62 percent in Nov-ember, compared with 45 percent in June) also played a crucial role in drawing people to the party.

Compared with the LSI’s survey last June, the Democratic Party has risen in popularity by 8 percent, while Golkar and the PDI-P have dropped by 4 percent and 10 percent respectively.

Saiful said the high number of swing voters — 45 percent — had caused the drop in votes for major parties, with the exception of the Demo-cratic Party.

“All parties are experiencing negative growth in supporter numbers, with more members leaving than joining. But with the Democratic Party, more members are joining than leaving,” he said.

The survey suggests the high number of swing voters stems from low voter loyalty to the parties because of the latter’s perceived poor performance in conducting their job.

The Democratic Party has improved its showing over its 2004 figures by 10 percent, with Golkar and the PDI-P falling by 6 percent and 4.5 percent respectively.

All other parties, including the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) also saw a significant loss of popularity.

The survey ranked the PKS in fourth place with 4.9 percent, followed by the PKB with 4.6 percent, newcomer the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) with 3.7 percent, and the PAN with 3.2 percent.

However, the large number of swing voters has also allowed for new parties to attract voters, with Prabowo Subianto’s Gerindra and Wiranto’s People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) gaining at the expense of more established parties.

The survey gave Hanura 2 percent of votes.

“All possibilities are now open because of the swing-voter factor,” the LSI’s Saiful said.

“Golkar and the PDI-P can no longer be seen as the only parties able to win the election, because now we must take into account the Democratic Party.”

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