Prabowo’s intelligence contacts give him an edge

The presidential candidate with the strongest links to experienced intelligence experts will have an edge in the upcoming presidential election, political expert Arbi Sanit says.

Although the presidential partnerships of Kalla—Wiranto and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono—Boediono are made up of strong figures with either direct or indirect access to the military, with former intelligence personnel on their team, Megawati and Prabowo definitely have an advantage, Arbi said.

The Megawati-Prabowo team will probably have more access to pertinent intelligence, he said at a discussion on the participation of former generals in the election and the reform of the defence sector in Jakarta on Thursday.

Megawati and Prabowo have Muchdi, a former deputy of the country’s intelligence agency (BIN). Muchdi is deputy chairman of Prabowo’s Gerindra party, and was also a suspect in the murder of prominent human rights activist Munir. Despite the allegations, he was exonerated of all charges by the state court at the end of last year.

Arbi said the advantage of having military influence in a campaign team would be the links to the intelligence sector.

“With intelligence operations, the skeletons in your enemy’s closets can be investigated easily.”

He said the campaign period would most likely see tough battles between the former generals.

“Even if the presidential election goes smoothly and safely, what remains worrying is what will happen after the result is announced.

“The danger lies in the money being sourced from tycoons, or the use of military influence through families, to get an advantage,” he said.

Whether or not the candidates are still active in military duty is not important, he argued.

“I see these generals as having the same working methods. They still have the same culture of discipline and ability to organize people.”

Generals also have power over military territory, whereas political parties must share areas with other parties.

“True they [political parties] have branches, but they are different from military bases.”

Another dangerous possibility would be if active military personnel joined the campaign team, Arbi said.

Asrian Mirza, deputy director of the Megawati Prabowo Media Center, said the generals backing their team were all former military men who were aware that to contribute to politics in civil society they should be civilians themselves.

“There are no active military personnel in our campaign team or in the party,” Asrian said.

Mufti Makarim, executive director of the Institute for Defense Security and Peace Studies, said all three teams had former intelligence officials in their ranks.

Mufti said there were two factors that could influence participation by generals in the campaigns.

“First, there is the feudalistic nature of society that perceives a strong government as coming from a strong leader, and while a strong leader in the past was a king, in modern times the society sees this in a military figure,” he said.

“Secondly, there is the belief among the political elite that votes supported by the military will bring more influence in politics,” said the former secretary-general of Kontras, the Commission for Disappearances and Victims of Violence.

“There is a view that if you don’t give the military a bargaining position, then you will lose support in politics,” he said.

One positive aspect of military involvement, however, is that “they are more aware that if they still want to contribute to the country, they have to follow the rules of democracy and enter politics via a party”.

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